《保险研究》20231107-《政策激励强度变化对个人参加养老保险行为的影响分析》（李永涛、储梓乔、刘钰彤、佟健）

［摘   要］随着老龄化时代来临，鼓励个体积极参加养老保险具有重要意义。养老保险补缴政策变动为识别参保激励变化对个人参加养老保险的影响提供了便利。本文基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据，利用断点回归发现，取消养老保险补缴政策提高了对年轻人参保的激励。具体来说，随着参保激励提升，个体参保人数增加了约56.6%，女性群体表现尤为明显，个体参保人数增加了约85.7%。而补缴政策则会导致机会主义，使个体缴费意愿推迟，在一定程度上拉低了养老保险实际缴费水平。增强参保激励将有助于提高养老保险实际缴费水平，并保障中国养老保险系统可持续发展。未来我国养老保险体制改革应着重于针对不同社会群体的养老保险激励机制设计。

［关键词］养老保险；补缴政策；激励效应；断点回归

［基金项目］辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目“推进辽宁城市治理现代化水平的对策研究”(L20BGL010)。

［作者简介］李永涛，辽宁大学经济学部经济学院副教授；储梓乔，辽宁大学经济学部经济学院硕士研究生；刘钰彤(通讯作者)，沈阳工程学院经济管理与法学院讲师；佟健，辽宁大学经济学部经济发展研究院副教授。

A Research on the Incentive Effects of Policy on Individual Behavior of Participating in Pension Insurance

LI Yong-tao,CHU Zi-qiao,LIU Yu-tong,TONG Jian

Abstract：As the aging population era arrives,it is important to encourage individuals to participate in pension insurance.The changes in supplementary contribution policy provide empirical evidences on how changes in participation incentives affect individuals′ participation in pension insurance.Utilizing data from the China Family Panel Studies and the regression discontinuity (RD) method,we find that canceling supplementary payment policy increases participation incentives for young people.Specifically speaking,as participation incentives improve,the number of participating individuals increase by approximately 56.6%.The effect is notably significant among females,whose numbers increased by approximately 85.7%.In contrast,the supplementary payment policywould delay individuals′ willingness to contribute due to opportunism,which to some extent lowers the actual contribution levels.To sum up,improving participation incentives can meaningfully improve contribution levels and help ensure the long-term sustainable development of China′s pension system.Therefore,China′s pension reform should focus on crafting incentive mechanisms tailored to different social groups.

Key words：pension insurance;supplementary contributionpolicy;incentive effect;regression discontinuity