《保险研究》20231203-《套期保值效果与“保险+期货”赔付合理性——基于玉米和大豆试点项目的实证分析》（鞠荣华、顾巧静）

［摘   要］“保险+期货”能够有效弥补农产品价格保险在目标价格厘定困难和缺乏系统性价格风险分散途径方面的缺陷，规范农产品保险的承保及理赔标准。但期货价格对个别试点地区现货价格代表性不高、期现价格联动性不足等问题，导致参保农户时常会面临赔付不足或赔付过度的情况。本文采用玉米和大豆“保险+期货”试点项目数据，分析了“保险+期货”的赔付情况及对农户生产经营风险的实际保障效果，在此基础上，实证分析了农产品期货市场套期保值效果对“保险+期货”赔付合理性的影响。研究表明，套期保值效果越好，“保险+期货”项目的赔付偏差越小，套期保值效果的提高能显著增加“保险+期货”项目的赔付合理性，但影响效果在不同实施模式和区域间存在一定差异。本文建议完善农产品期货市场基础设施，制定更为合理的赔付标准，规范查勘定损工作，以改善赔付合理性。

［关键词］“保险+期货”；套期保值效果；赔付合理性；赔付偏差

［基金项目］国家社会科学基金项目“中国农产品期货套期保值效果评价及优化研究”（21BJY211）。

［作者简介］鞠荣华，中国农业大学经济管理学院教授、博士生导师；顾巧静，中国农业大学经济管理学院金融学博士研究生。

Hedging Effect and Reasonableness of “Insurance+Futures” Compensation—An Empirical Analysis Based on Corn and Soybean Pilot Projects

JU Rong-hua,GU Qiao-jing

Abstract：“Insurance+futures” can effectively make up for the defects of agricultural product price insurance in the difficulty of determining target price and the lack of systematic price risk diversification,and standardize the underwriting and claim standards of agricultural product insurance.However,the futures price is not representative of spot price in certain pilot areas,and the correlation between futures and spot prices is insufficient,resulting in the problem that insured farmers often face the situation of under-compensation or over-compensation.Based on the data of corn and soybean “insurance+futures” pilot projects,this paper analyzes the compensation situation of “insurance+futures” and the actual protection effect on farmers' production and management risks.On this basis,it empirically analyzes the influence of hedging effectiveness on the reasonableness of “insurance+futures” compensation.The research result shows that the better the hedging effectiveness is,the smaller the compensation deviation of the “insurance+futures” project,and the improvement of the hedging effectiveness can significantly increase the compensation reasonableness of the “insurance+futures” project,but the impact effect is different in different implementation modes and regions.This paper suggests to improve the infrastructure of agricultural futures market,formulate more reasonable compensation standards and standardize the work of loss survey,so as to improve the reasonableness of compensation.

Key words：“insurance+futures”;hedging effectiveness;compensation reasonableness;compensation deviation