《保险研究》20231105-《农业保险能否助力农业绿色发展水平提升？——基于13个粮食主产区的评估》（焦雨欣、江生忠、费清）

［摘   要］在“十四五”规划、“双碳”目标和ESG理念兴起的背景下，农业绿色发展已成为农业发展的重要议题和必由之路，本文旨在研究农业保险对农业绿色发展水平的影响。文章基于2010~2020年中国粮食主产区13个省份的面板数据搭建农业绿色发展水平评价指标体系，使用熵权TOPSIS综合评价法测度各省当年农业绿色发展水平指数，在此基础上运用静态面板模型GMM估计方法实证分析农业保险对农业绿色发展水平的影响。研究结果表明：目前农业保险通过对产出高效发展水平、产品安全发展水平的负向影响和对环境友好发展水平的正向影响，间接产生了对粮食主产区省份的农业绿色发展水平的消极影响，且影响存在显著的门槛效应，随着农业保险赔付支出的增加，农业保险对农业绿色发展水平的负向影响程度呈现“倒U形”。本文认为应通过保险条款化学品减量投入要求纳入、绿色农业生产行为费率优惠等措施提升农业保险“绿色”属性，改变农业保险无法有效发挥其绿色转型支持作用的现状，实现农业保险对农业绿色发展水平提升的促进作用。

［关键词］农业保险；农业绿色发展水平；熵权TOPSIS；门槛效应

［基金项目］太安农险研究院课题项目《农业保险大灾风险分散机制研究》。

［作者简介］焦雨欣，南开大学金融学院博士研究生，研究方向：农业保险；江生忠，南开大学金融学院教授，南开大学农业保险研究中心主任，博士生导师；费清，泰康养老保险股份有限公司战略企划部。

Does Agricultural Insurance Have An Impact on The Green Development of Agriculture?—Assessment Based on 13 Major Grain Producing Regions

JIAO Yu-xin,JIANG Sheng-zhong,FEI Qing

Abstract：Against the backdrop of the 14th Five Year Plan,the "dual carbon" goals,and the rise of the ESG concept,green development in agriculture has become an important issue and the inevitable path for agricultural development.This paper aims to study the impact of agricultural insurance on the level of agricultural green development,and at the same time examine whether the impact shows a significant threshold effect.Based on the panel data of 13 provinces in China′s major grain producing areas from 2010 to 2020,this paper builds an evaluation index system of agricultural green development level,and uses the entropy weight TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation method to measure the index of agricultural green development level of each province in that year.On this basis,the static panel model GMM estimation method is used to empirically analyze the impact of agricultural insurance on the level of agricultural green development.The results show that:at present,agricultural insurance has indirectly produced a negative impact on the agricultural green development level of major grain-producing provinces through its negative impact on the development level of output efficiency and product safety,and the positive impact on environmental friendly development.And the impact has a significant threshold effect.With the increase of agricultural insurance payouts,the degree of negative impact of agricultural insurance on the level of agricultural green development presents an "inverted U-shape".This paper argues that the "green" attribute of agricultural insurance should be improved through the inclusion of chemical input reduction requirements in insurance clauses and preferential rates for green agricultural production behaviors,so as to change the current situation that agricultural insurance cannot effectively play its role in supporting green transformation,and realize the promotion role of agricultural insurance in promoting the level of agricultural green development.

Key words：agricultural insurance;level of green agricultural development;entropy weight TOPSIS;threshold effect