《保险研究》20231104-《河南“7•20”特大雨灾对财产保险公司的冲击：赔付和资产重置》（孟佶贤、李俊宏、康吉嘉、杨晓光）

［摘   要］2021年7月17日至23日间河南省的特大雨灾造成了巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡。灾后有河南业务的各财险公司快速、高效地进行了保险赔偿，成为我国保险业一个载入史册的典型案例。本文借助有关河南“7•20”特大雨灾的降雨数据和财险公司的赔付以及资产配置数据，考察了特大雨灾冲击下财险公司赔付和资产重置的情况。研究发现：雨灾期间的过程降雨量相比往年变化越大，企业财产保险和机动车辆保险的赔付支出越多，但农业保险和意外伤害保险赔付支出受雨灾影响程度有限，这一结论在替换解释变量、使用断点回归后仍保持稳健；企业财产保险赔付在排水系统或排污系统建设较好的城市受雨灾的影响更为显著，而机动车辆保险赔付在排水系统或排污系统建设较差的城市更易受雨灾的影响，并且此次特大雨灾仅在排水系统建设较差且排污建设情况较好的地区对企业财产保险支出存在显著影响；特大雨灾后河南业务占比较高的财险公司表现出扩大再保险业务的趋势，同时，在河南省赔付支出更多的财险公司会卖出股票、买入基金，从债券配置来看，财险公司会卖出企业债，买入金融债和政府债。本文的研究预期能够为财险公司应对巨灾赔偿以及与之相应的再保险业务调整和金融资产重置提供一定的借鉴。

［关键词］特大雨灾；保险赔付；降雨量；断点回归；再保险；金融资产

［基金项目］国家自然科学基金青年项目(72101253)；国家自然科学基金重大项目(72192800)。

［作者简介］孟佶贤，北京林业大学经济管理学院统计系讲师、经济学博士，研究方向：金融计量、不确定性决策；李俊宏(通讯作者)，中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院博士研究生；康吉嘉，中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院博士研究生；杨晓光(通讯作者)，中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院研究员、博士生导师，中国系统工程学会理事长，中国科学院大学经济与管理学

The Impact of the “7•20” Catastrophic Rainstorm in Henan Province on Property Insurance Companies:Payouts and Assets′ Reallocation

MENG Ji-xian,LI Jun-hong KANG Ji-jia,YANG Xiao-guang

Abstract：The catastrophic rainstorm in Henan Province between July 17th and 23rd,2021 caused massive economic losses and casualties.After the disaster,property insurance companies with operations in Henan Province made insurance payouts promptly and efficiently,making it a remarkable case in the history of China′s insurance industry.This article utilizes rainfall data related to the "7.20" catastrophic rainstorm,along with property insurance companies′ payouts and asset allocation data,to investigate the payouts and asset reallocation of property insurance companies under the impact of the catastrophic rainstorm.The following research findings are presented in this article.First,during the rainstorm period,the greater the variation in rainfall compared to previous years,the larger the payout expenses for enterprise property insurance and motor vehicle insurance.However,the impact of the rainstorm on payout expenses for agricultural insurance and personal accident insurance was relatively limited.This conclusion remains robust even after replacing the explanatory variables and employing a regression discontinuity design.Second,the payouts of enterprise property insurance are more significantly affected by rainstorms in cities with well-developed drainage or sewage systems.On the other hand,motor vehicle insurance payouts are more susceptible to the impact of rainstorms in cities with poor drainage or sewage systems.Furthermore,the catastrophic rainstorm in question only has a significant effect on enterprise property insurance expenditures in areas where the drainage system is poorly developed but the sewage infrastructure is relatively better.Third,property insurance companies with a higher proportion of business in Henan Province exhibit an expansion trend in their reinsurance business following the catastrophic rainstorm.Meanwhile,property insurance companies with higher payout expenses in Henan Province have sold stocks and purchased funds.Regarding bond allocation,these property insurance companies have sold corporate bonds and purchased financial and government bonds.The findings of this study are expected to provide valuable insights for property insurance companies in dealing with catastrophic payouts and the corresponding reinsurance business adjustment and realignment of financial assets.

Key words：catastrophic rainstorm;insurance payouts;rainfall amount;regression discontinuity design;reinsurance;financial assets