《保险研究》20240506-《长期护理保险对家庭成员劳动供给的影响》（艾静怡、彭希哲）

［摘   要］老龄化程度加深对劳动力数量与家庭养老的可持续性带来挑战，而长期护理保险的实施有助于缓解上述挑战。本文基于我国长期护理保险的试点经验，使用中国健康与养老追踪调查数据(CHARLS)考察长护险对失能人群家庭成员劳动供给的外溢性影响。结果发现，长护险会使失能老人子代的劳动参与率显著提升7.9个百分点，同住比例显著下降7.1个百分点，且该影响主要体现在子代女性中，而对失能老人配偶的劳动参与率无显著影响。机制分析发现，失能老人子代更易受替代效应影响，而失能老人配偶更易受收入效应影响。进一步分析发现：长护险改善了失能老人配偶在闲暇和健康方面的福利；还从多个方面增强了代际之间联系，弥补了同住比例下降带来的陪伴缺失。本文为全面评估长护险的总体效果提供了新的视角。

［关键词］长期护理保险；劳动供给；非正式照料

［基金项目］本文受到国家社会科学基金重大项目(23ZDA102)、国家自然科学基金(71974036)和上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2023EJB006)资助。

［作者简介］艾静怡，复旦大学老龄研究院博士后研究员；彭希哲，复旦大学老龄研究院院长，复旦大学文科资深教授。

The Effect of Long-term Care Insurance on the Labor Supply of Family Members

AI Jing-yi,PENG Xi-zhe

Abstract：Deepening population aging poses challenges to the quantity of the labor force and the sustainability of family old-age care,which the implementation of long-term care insurance can help alleviate.Based on Long-term Care Insurance pilot in China,and using data from the China Health and Aging Tracking Survey (CHARLS),this paper examines the spillover effects of Long-term Care Insurance on the labor supply of family members of family with disabled members.The results find that Long-term Care Insurance significantly increases the labor participation rate of the offspring of the disabled elderly by 7.9 percentage points and significantly decreases the proportion of co-residence by 7.1 percentage points,and that this effect is mainly reflected in the female offspring,while it has no significant effect on the labor participation rate of the spouses of the disabled elderly.The mechanism analysis finds that the offspring of the disabled elderly are more susceptible to the substitution effect,while the spouses of the disabled elderly are more susceptible to the income effect.Further analysis reveals that Long-term Care Insurance improves the leisure and health well-being of spouses of the disabled elderly;it also strengthens intergenerational ties in several ways to compensate for the lack of companionship brought about by the decline in the proportion of co-residence.This paper provides new perspectives for a comprehensive assessment of the overall effects of Long-term Care Insurance.

Key words：Long-term Care Insurance;labor supply;informal caregiving