《保险研究》20241202-《生猪疫病保险能够稳定养殖场户的收入吗？——基于全国6省生猪养殖场户的调查数据》（聂赟彬、段应元）

［摘   要］稳定养殖场户收入是保障猪肉供给、促进生猪产业持续健康发展的重要基础，研究生猪疫病保险对养殖场户收入的影响具有重要意义。本文构建了生猪疫病保险对养殖场户收入影响的理论分析框架，从养殖资金投入、劳动力投入和养殖专业化程度三方面分析生猪疫病保险对养殖场户收入的影响机制，并基于河北、山东、河南、四川、辽宁、山西6省418个养殖场户的调研数据，使用处理效应模型和分位数回归模型进行实证检验。结果表明：生猪疫病保险切实发挥了保障养殖场户收入稳定的功能，其主要通过增加养殖资金投入和劳动力投入、提升养殖专业化程度，稳定养殖场户收入。从异质性分析看，生猪疫病保险对不同收入水平的养殖场户作用效果存在显著差异，其中对稳定中等收入水平的养殖场户收入效果最为明显。建议政府相关部门应加强生猪疫病保险的宣传力度、增强生猪疫病保险政策引导功能、创新生猪保险产品等。

［关键词］生猪疫病保险；养殖户收入；资金投入；劳动力投入；养殖专业化

［基金项目］国家社科基金青年项目“畜牧业生态化养殖的实现路径和政策保障研究”(19CGL034)；河北省社会科学基金项目“河北省资源匮乏型村庄集体经济组织治理与经营绩效研究”(HB23GL036)。

［作者简介］聂赟彬，农业农村部农村经济研究中心助理研究员、博士，研究方向：农业经济理论与政策、畜牧业保险；段应元(通讯作者)，中国农业大学经济管理学院博士研究生，黄河财产保险股份有限公司副总裁、经济师，研究方向：农业保险与农业风险管理。

Can Pig Epidemic Insurance Stabilize Farmers’ Income?—Based on Survey Data of Pig Farmers in 6 Provinces of China

NIE Yun-bin,DUAN Ying-yuan

Abstract：Stabilizing farmers’ income is an important basis for guaranteeing pork supply and promoting the sustainable and healthy development of pig aquaculture industry.It is of great significance to study the impact of pig epidemic insurance on farmers’ income.This paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework for the impact of pig epidemic insurance on farmers’ income,and analyzes the mechanism of pig epidemic insurance’s impact on farmers’ income from three aspects:capital investment,labor input and breeding specialization.Based on the survey data of 418 farmers in Hebei,Shandong,Henan,Sichuan,Liaoning and Shanxi provinces,the paper conducts an empirical test,using the treatment effect model and quantile regression model.The results show that the pig epidemic insurance has a significant role in stabilizing the farmer’s income mainly by increasing the investment of capital and labor,and improving the breeding specialization.The heterogeneity analysis shows that there is significant difference in the effect of pig epidemic insurance on farmers with different income levels,and the effect on stabilizing the farmers’ income with medium income level is the most obvious.It is suggested that the relevant government departments should enhance the publicity of pig epidemic insurance,strengthen the policy guiding function of pig epidemic insurance,and innovate pig insurance products.

Key words：pig epidemic insurance;farmers’ income;capital investment;labor input;breeding specialization