《保险研究》20240706-《延迟退休年龄背景下的适度最低缴费年限研究——基于基金可持续性与养老金替代率视角》（曾益、叶琪茂）

［摘   要］现阶段,我国城镇职工基本养老保险面临灵活就业人员与私营企业职工达到最低缴费年限后不再缴费的挑战,即“参而不缴”难题。本文基于基金可持续性与养老金替代率视角,运用精算模型模拟适度最低缴费年限。研究发现:提高最低缴费年限能增加养老金替代率,但会扩大未来养老保险基金累计赤字；在不延迟退休年龄的情况下,兼顾基金可持续性和养老金替代率的适度最低缴费年限为21~22年；延迟退休年龄能减少未来基金累计赤字并提高养老金替代率,当女性退休年龄延迟至60岁,适度最低缴费年限为26~27年,当男女退休年龄延迟至65岁,适度最低缴费年限为30~31年。上述结论均通过敏感性测试。因此,本研究建议最低缴费年限在现行15年的基础上延长5年,并根据渐进式延迟退休年龄政策,再逐步延长5~10年,实施25~30年的最低缴费年限政策,以促进养老保险基金可持续运行并提高养老金替代率。

［关键词］养老保险；最低缴费年限；参而不缴；延迟退休年龄

［基金项目］国家自然科学基金青年项目“职工养老保险全国统筹对地方政府保费征缴行为的影响:机制探讨、实证检验与政策优化”(72304283)；中央高校基本科研业务经费“余缺调剂的全国统筹制度对职工养老保险财政负担的影响及优化对策”(2722024BY018)。

［作者简介］曾益,中南财经政法大学公共管理学院教授,研究方向:养老保险；叶琪茂,中南财经政法大学公共管理学院硕士研究生,研究方向:养老保险。

A Study on Appropriate Minimum Contribution Period Based on the Background of Delaying Retirement—From the Perspective of Fund Sustainability and Pension Replacement Rate

ZENG Yi,YE Qi-mao

Abstract：At the present stage,China′s urban employee basic pension insurance faces the challenge that flexible employment personnel and private enterprise staff cease to contribution after reaching the minimum years of contribution,namely the situation of "participating without contribution".Based on the perspective of fund sustainability and pension replacement rate,this paper uses actuarial models to simulate the appropriate minimum contribution period.The study reaches the following findings.Increasing the minimum contribution period can enhance the pension replacement rate,but it will expand the accumulated deficit of the pension fund in the future.The appropriate minimum contribution period taking into account the sustainability of the fund and the replacement rate of the pension is 21-22 years without delaying the retirement age.Delaying the retirement age moderately can reduce the accumulated deficit of the fund and improve the pension replacement rate.When the retirement age is delayed to 60 for females,the appropriate minimum contribution period is 26-27 years.When the retirement age is delayed to 65 for both males and females,the appropriate minimum contribution period is 30-31 years.All the above conclusions have passed sensitivity tests.To sum up,China should extend the minimum contribution period by 5 years on the basis of the current 15-year minimum contribution period,and gradually extend the period by 5-10 years in line with the gradual retirement postponement policy,and ultimately implement the minimum contribution period policy of about 25-30 years，in order to promote the sustainable operation of the pension insurance fund and improve the pension replacement rate.

Key words：pension insurance;minimum contribution period;participating without contribution;delaying the retirement age