《保险研究》20240905-《三阶风险态度对保险需求的影响：理论分析和实验验证》（郭振华、任钊弘、倪红霞）

［摘   要］早期，学者们只关注到二阶风险态度“风险厌恶”对个体风险决策的影响，后来，有学者发现三阶风险态度“谨慎”和四阶风险态度“节制”对个体风险决策的影响同样不容忽视。在Fei et al.(2008)关于单维度和零均值背景风险的研究基础上，本文同时引入财富和健康两个维度的三阶风险态度“谨慎”和“交叉谨慎”，将“零均值背景风险”一般化为“零均值和负均值背景风险”以更加符合现实状况，进一步从理论上分析了三阶风险态度对保险需求的影响。之后，通过行为实验测量了受试者关于财富、健康两个维度的各阶风险态度和受试者保险需求，实证检验了三阶风险态度“谨慎”和“交叉谨慎”对保险需求的影响。实验研究发现：第一，无论在财富维度还是健康维度，谨慎和不节制都是普遍存在的，关于财富的交叉谨慎、交叉不节制在受试者群体中也同样显著；第二，对理论分析得到的三阶风险态度影响保险需求的四条理论预测进行验证，发现有两条理论预测与实验结果一致，另外两条理论预测与实验结果不一致。可见，建立在理性假设和期望效用最大化原则基础上的三阶风险态度影响保险需求的逻辑是一种理想化的保险需求理论，在现实世界并非完全适用，具备现实解释力的应该是反映消费者真实决策过程和影响因素的行为保险需求理论。

［关键词］三阶风险态度；保险需求；谨慎；交叉谨慎

［作者简介］郭振华，上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院教授、保险系主任；任钊弘，上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院保险系2021级硕士研究生；倪红霞，上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院保险系讲师。

The Impacts of Third-order Risk Attitude on Insurance Demands:Theoretical Analysis and Experimental Validation

GUO Zhen-hua,REN Zhao-hong,NI hong-xia

Abstract：In the early days,scholars only focused on the impact of second-order risk attitude "risk aversion" on individual risk decision-making.Later,some scholars found that the effects of third-order risk attitude "prudence" and fourth-order risk attitude "temperance" on individual risk decision-making cannot be ignored.On the basis of Fei et al.’s(2008)research on single dimensional and zero mean background risks,this paper further theoretically analyzes the impact of third-order risk attitudes on insurance demand by introducing both wealth and health dimensions of "prudence" and "cross prudence",and generalizing zero mean background risks to "zero mean and negative mean background risks" to better fit the reality.Then,this article measures the various levels of risk attitudes and insurance demands of consumers regarding the dimensions of wealth and health through behavioral experiments,and empirically tests the impact of third-order risk attitudes of "prudence" and "cross prudence" on insurance demands.The experimental research has found that:firstly,prudence and lack of temperance are common in both wealth and health dimensions,and cross prudence and lack of temperance regarding wealth are equally significant in the subject population;secondly,the four theoretical predictions of the impact of third-order risk attitudes on insurance demand obtained from theoretical analysis are validated,and it is found that two theoretical predictions are consistent with experimental results,while the other two theoretical predictions are inconsistent with experimental results.It can be seen that the logic of the third-order risk attitude affecting insurance demand,based on rational assumptions and the principle of maximizing expected utility,is an idealized insurance demand theory,and it is not entirely applicable in the real world.The behavioral insurance demand theory,which reflects the real decision-making process and influencing factors of consumers,should have practical explanatory power.

Key words：third-order risk attitudes;insurance demand;prudence;cross prudence