《保险研究》20250307-《税务全责征收、信息化威慑与企业养老支出——基于税收调查数据分析》（解洪涛、王嘉庆、刘锋）

［摘   要］养老保险征收效率是养老金可持续的重要保障。本文以2018年7月社会保险征缴机构改革为切入点，研究税务全责征收对企业养老支出的影响以及与企业雇佣、工资决策的关系。研究发现，税务全责征收显著提升了企业养老支出水平。这一效应在实际缴费率较低、灵活就业人员占比较大的企业更为明显。具体而言，劳动密集型企业、小微企业、建筑业和交通运输、仓储和邮政业企业，受改革影响较大，其养老支出水平显著上升。在机制讨论中，通过半结构式访谈排除了人员机构设置、强制手段运用等因素的影响，验证了税务部门信息化威慑对提高企业社保遵从度的重要作用。进一步分析发现，企业通过降低雇佣规模和员工薪酬化解成本增量，其中民营企业、小微企业以及劳动密集度高的企业雇佣规模和员工薪酬下降明显。本研究为进一步优化社保制度，稳就业、稳预期、稳步提高劳动者收入提供参考。

［关键词］税务全责征收；社保征缴机构改革；企业养老支出

［作者简介］解洪涛，中南财经政法大学财政税务学院教授，税务专硕中心主任，研究方向：社会保险；王嘉庆，中南财经政法大学财政税务学院博士研究生，研究方向：社会保险；刘锋，中南财经政法大学财政税务学院博士研究生，研究方向：社会保险。

Tax Authority’s Full Responsibility for Collection,Information-based Deterrence,and Corporate Pension Expenditures— Based on Tax Survey Data Analysis

XIE Hong-tao,WANG Jia-qing,LIU Feng

Abstract：The efficiency of pension insurance collection is a crucial safeguard for the sustainability of pension funds.This study examines the impact of the July 2018 social insurance collection institutional reform on enterprises’ pension expenditures and its intricate relationship with their employment and wage decisions.The results show that the full responsibility of tax authorities for collection significantly increases enterprises’ social pension expenditures.This effect is more pronounced in firms with relatively low actual contribution rates and a high proportion of flexible workers.Specifically,labor-intensive enterprises,small and micro enterprises,and those in industries such as construction,transportation,warehousing,and postal services experience a substantial increase in pension expenditure levels.In the discussion of the underlying mechanisms,questionnaire survey excludes factors such as personnel and institutional arrangements,and the use of mandatory measures,confirming the significant role of information-based deterrence by tax authorities in improving corporate compliance with social insurance obligations.Further analysis reveals that enterprises mitigate cost increases by reducing hiring scales and employee wages,with private enterprises,small and micro firms,and those with high labor intensity showing a clear decline in both employment size and employee compensations.This study provides important insights for further optimizing the social security system,stabilizing employment,managing expectations,and gradually increasing workers’ income.

Key words：tax authority’s full responsibility for collection;social insurance collection institutional reform;enterprises’ pension expenditures