《保险研究》20260407-《延迟退休、养老基金缺口减缓与方案优化》（张琳琳、刘云涛）

［摘   要］本文构建了延迟退休政策影响下的养老基金缺口测度模型,对延迟退休政策施行背景下我国养老基金缺口的未来变化趋势及其成因与应对进行了考察和分析。研究显示:延迟退休对养老基金缺口同时存在正、负效应,正效应会使得养老基金缺口问题得到缓解,负效应则起着相反作用；正负效应的强弱取决于养老金替代率的变动差额,存在相应的临界值,替代率变动差额小于临界值时正效应占主导,反之则负效应占主导,我国从延退政策过渡期至全面执行阶段的2053年均为正效应主导状态,2055年起将转为负效应主导；为应对负效应占主导的局面,本文基于现行延退方案提出优化方案。

［关键词］延迟退休；养老基金缺口减缓；方案优化；养老金替代率

［基金项目］本研究得到国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(72203043)、上海市白玉兰人才计划浦江项目(23PJC019)、上海市晨光计划项目(21CGA05)的资助。

［作者简介］张琳琳(通讯作者),复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向:人口老龄化与养老金融,延迟退休方案设计及评价；刘云涛,复旦大学经济学院博士研究生。

Postponed Retirement,Alleviating of Pension Fund Gap,and Scheme Optimization

ZHANG Lin-lin LIU Yun-tao

Abstract：This paper constructs a measurement model for the pension fund gap under the influence of the postponed retirement policy,and conducts an in-depth investigation and analysis of the future trends,causes,and countermeasures of China’s pension fund gap in the context of implementing the retirement postponing policy.The findings show that postponed retirement has both positive and negative effects on the gap.The positive effect alleviates the gap,while the negative effect worsens it.The strength of these effects depends on the magnitude of the change in the replacement rate,and there exists a corresponding threshold.When the change in the replacement rate is below this threshold,the positive effect dominates;otherwise,the negative effect dominates.China will experience positive-effect dominance from the transition phase of the postponed retirement policy to 2053,which falls within the full implementation phase,and will shift to negative-effect dominance starting from 2055.To address the scenario where the negative effect dominates,this paper proposes an optimized scheme on the current postponed retirement plan.

Key words：postponed retirement;pension fund gap alleviation;scheme optimization;pension replacement rate