《保险研究》20241104-《中国主粮政策性农业保险改革能增加农民收入吗？——基于保障水平的视角》（江生忠、刘晓丹、江时鲲）

［摘   要］设计并推行精准高效的农业保险政策，对于破解我国“三农”难题以及护航经济社会稳健前行，具有举足轻重的战略意义。本文依托我国自2018年起，在各省份逐步推行的三大粮食作物完全成本保险和种植收入保险政策这一准自然实验，采用多期双重差分方法，从农业保险保障水平视角深入探究该政策对我国农民收入的影响，以期为中国主粮政策性农业保险改革提供有益借鉴。研究发现，该政策有效促进了各试点省份农民收入的增加，经过一系列稳健性检验后，该结论依然成立，且该政策对西部地区农民收入的影响最为显著。机制分析揭示，该政策通过扩大农作物播种面积、提高农作物单产水平和提高农业科技水平等多重路径促进各试点省份农民收入增加。进一步分析发现，该政策在实施过程中激励了我国粮食作物种植结构“趋粮化”。本文为我国进一步推广完全成本保险和种植收入保险试点提供了理论支持，也为优化和完善我国农业保险政策提供了有益的参考和借鉴。

［关键词］完全成本保险；种植收入保险；农民收入；双重差分法

［基金项目］国家社会科学基金项目“我国农业保险制度优化与发展”（18BJY254）、天津市哲学社会科学规划课题“农业保障体系对农业经济增长及农村反贫困的作用机制研究”（TJYJ18-002）。

［作者简介］江生忠，南开大学金融学院教授，博士生导师，农业保险研究中心主任，研究方向：农业保险；刘晓丹，南开大学金融学院博士研究生，研究方向：农业保险；江时鲲，中国人寿财产保险股份有限公司产品创新部，资深主管，研究方向：农业保险。

Can China’s Staple Grain Policy Agricultural Insurance Reform Increase Farmers’ Income?—Based on the protection level perspective

JIANG Sheng-zhong,LIU Xiao-dan,JIANG Shi-kun

Abstract：The design and implementation of precise and efficient agricultural insurance policy is of strategic significance for solving the “three rural-related issues” in China and escorting the steady development of economy and society.Relying on the quasi-natural experiment of full cost insurance and planting income insurance policy for three major grains gradually implemented in various provinces since 2018,this paper uses the multi-stage difference-in differences method to deeply explore the impact of this policy on farmers’ income from the perspective of agricultural insurance protection level,in order to provide useful reference for the reform of policy-based agricultural insurance for staple grains in China.The study finds that the policy effectively increases farmers’ income in each pilot province,and after a series of robustness tests,the conclusion is still valid,and the policy has the most significant impact on farmers’ income in the western region.The mechanism analysis reveals that the policy promotes the increase of farmers’ income by expanding the sown area of crops,improving the crop yield per unit area and enhancing the level of agricultural technology.In addition,further analysis finds that in the process of implementation,the policy incentivizes the tilting towards “grain” of the crop planting structure.This paper not only provides theoretical support for further promoting the pilot of full cost insurance and planting income insurance,but also provides useful reference for optimizing and perfecting the agricultural insurance policy in our country.

Key words：full cost insurance;planting income insurance;farmer’s income;Difference in Differences Method