《保险研究》20241103-《风险环境下的个体风险偏好与时间偏好——基于随机酬金实验的研究》（李紫繁、秦雪征、易君健）

［摘   要］个体在风险环境中如何决策是行为经济学领域的重要问题，相关研究有助于在当前多种经济风险交织叠加的背景下进一步释放居民消费潜能、提振企业家投资信心。但风险环境与个体风险偏好、时间偏好之间存在复杂关系，可能存在多种潜在影响机制。本文设计了一个搭载在抽样调查问卷上的随机酬金实验，利用实验和抽样调查数据，研究实际风险环境对个体风险偏好及时间偏好的影响。本文发现：个体面临高于自身风险偏好水平的风险冲击时，风险偏好有所增强，并表现出更高的耐心水平；而低于个体自身风险偏好水平的风险冲击会导致其更加厌恶风险，风险回避倾向增强，并且耐心水平下降。此外，积极情绪和记忆机制是本次实验中个体偏好发生改变的重要渠道。本文为理解当前居民消费和企业投资决策提供了新的视角，并为优化相应经济政策提供了有益参考。

［关键词］风险环境；风险偏好；时间偏好；随机控制试验

［基金项目］国家自然科学基金面上项目“健康素养的形成机制与社会经济影响：卫生经济学与行为经济学视角”（72074004）。

［作者简介］李紫繁，北京大学经济学院博士研究生；秦雪征（通讯作者），北京大学经济学院副院长、北京大学全球健康发展研究院副院长、教授；易君健，北京大学国家发展研究院教授。

Individual Risk Preferences and Time Preferences in Risky Environments—A Study Based on a Random Reward Experiment

LI Zi-fan,QIN Xue-zheng,YI Jun-jian

Abstract：How individuals make decisions in risky environments is a critical issue in behavioral economics.Research in this area is crucial for unlocking consumer spending potential and boosting entrepreneurial investment confidence,especially amid the current complex economic risk landscape.The relationship between risk environments and individual risk and time preferences is intricate,potentially involving multiple influencing mechanisms.This study employs a random reward experiment embedded within a survey questionnaire to investigate the impact of actual risk environments on individual risk and time preferences.The findings reveal that when individuals encounter risk shocks exceeding their inherent risk preference level,their risk tolerance increases and they exhibit greater patience.Conversely,when faced with risk shocks below their inherent risk preference level,individuals become more risk-averse and their patience decreases.Additionally,positive emotion and memory play significant roles in altering individual preferences in this experiment.This study offers new insights into consumer spending and business investment decisions and provides valuable guidance for optimizing related economic policies.

Key words：risk environment;risk preference;time preference;RCT