《保险研究》20250404-《基于风险在时间和空间上二维估计的农作物保险定价研究》（孙钰祥、虞幸然、粟芳）

［摘   要］农业保险高质量发展要求建立科学的费率厘定机制。农作物保险面临农业生产风险的系统性问题，费率厘定的风险模型与一般的财产保险有所不同。通过将产量风险分解为时间和空间上的波动，本文开发了风险基于时间和空间上二维估计的农作物风险模型及保险定价方法；并根据农业保险承保理赔特征改进了传统风险分析法的建模范式，在成本保险定价时纳入分阶段理赔，在收入保险定价时将价格和产量的依赖结构限制于系统风险，使费率厘定更贴合实务。数值模拟显示，新模型精度较高，稳健性更好。保险人执行新模型费率时，保费收入和赔款支出在经营跨度内达到总体平衡，充分分散了农业生产风险。此外，模拟还显示，在现阶段“扩面、增品、提标”工作中，政府的财政补贴支出可能会超预期。因此，通过风险分析法厘定农作物保险费率时，应充分结合承保理赔实务，可纳入风险基于时空二维估计的模型，增加费率厘定的精度和稳健性，从而提高保险机构的稳健经营能力，帮助政府部门准确估计补贴规模，合理制定补贴预算，促进农业保险的可持续发展。

［关键词］风险二维化；农作物风险模型；农作物保险定价；分阶段理赔

［基金项目］国家社会科学基金项目“运用农业保险健全农民收益保障机制研究”（23BJY019）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（CXJJ-2024-381）。

［作者简介］孙钰祥，上海财经大学金融学院博士研究生;虞幸然，上海财经大学金融学院博士研究生;粟芳，上海财经大学金融学院教授。

A Study on Crop Insurance Pricing Based on Temporal and Spatial Two-Dimensional Risk Diversification

SUN Yu-xiang，YU Xing-ran，SU Fang

Abstract：The high-quality development of agricultural insurance requires the establishment of a scientific premium rate determination mechanism.Crop insurance faces the systemic problem of agricultural production risk， and its risk model for pricing is different from general P&C insurance business.By decomposing the yield risk into temporal and spatial fluctuations，a crop risk model and its insurance pricing method based on temporal and spatial two-dimensional estimation are developed.And according to the characteristics of agricultural insurance underwriting and claims，the modeling paradigm of traditional risk analysis is improved，such as including phased claims settlement in cost insurance and limiting the price-volume dependence structure to system risk in income insurance，which renders the rate determination more suitable for practice.Numerical simulation shows that the new model is more precise and robust.The insurer has achieved an overall balance of premium income and compensation expenditure within the span of operation and full dispersion of agricultural production risks.But the government′s fiscal subsidy expenditure in the work of "expanding，increasing and upgrading" may exceed expectations.Therefore，it is suggested that the pricing of agricultural insurance should be based on the underwriting and claims settlement practices，apply the spatial-temporal two-dimensional risk model，and enhance the precision and robustness of pricing，thus improving the insurer′s stable operation and the relevant government department′ ability to properly estimate and budget the scale of subsidies，and promote the sustainable development of agricultural insurance.

Key words：two-dimensional risk;crop risk model;crop insurance pricing;phased compensation