《保险研究》20251007-《养老保险能缓解农村老人的社会关系排斥吗？——来自CHARLS的证据》（郑伟、于梦迪、吕有吉）

［摘   要］本文基于中国健康与养老追踪调查2011～2018年的数据，构建了与中国农村“差序格局”相适应的社会关系排斥指数，探究了参加养老保险对农村老人社会关系排斥的影响及其人群异质性，并进一步分析了养老保险对不同圈层社会关系排斥的差异化作用。研究发现，我国农村老人的社会关系排斥问题普遍存在且较为严重，参加养老保险能使农村老人的社会关系排斥指数降低0.141(相当于整体均值的18%)。机制分析表明，上述作用通过降低劳动时长和增加消费支出两条路径实现。异质性分析表明，低教育人群和不与子女同住老人的社会关系排斥指数降低幅度较大，而他们恰恰是农村养老保险政策关注的弱势群体。进一步分析表明，参加养老保险对核心圈层的子女关系和次核心圈层的隔代照料的正向促进作用更强。本文建议应着力稳住城乡居民养老保险覆盖率，重点关注农村低教育水平老人、不与子女同住老人等弱势群体；逐步提高城乡居民养老金水平，分阶段提高至农村居民人均可支配收入的相应比例；健全城乡居民基础养老金确定和正常调整机制，确保农村老人持续共享经济社会发展成果。

［关键词］养老保险；农村老人；差序格局；社会关系排斥

［基金项目］国家社科基金重大项目“基于保险制度建设的国家风险管理体系”(23&ZD178)；自然科学基金青年项目“延迟退休、养老保险降费与收入不平等演化”(72204126)。

［作者简介］郑伟，北京大学经济学院教授，博士生导师，研究方向：保险与社会保障；于梦迪(通讯作者)，北京大学经济学院，博士生，研究方向：保险与社会保障，E-mail：yumengdi@stu.pku.edu.cn；吕有吉，南开大学金融学院，经济学博士，副教授，研究方向：保险与社会保障。

Can Pension Scheme Alleviate the Social Relationship Exclusion of the Rural Elderly?—Evidence from CHARLS

ZHENG Wei,YU Meng-di,LYU You-ji

Abstract：This paper utilizes data from the CHARLS database from 2011 to 2018 and constructs an index of social relationship exclusion based on the “orderly-diversity pattern” in rural China.It explores the overall and heterogeneous influence of participating in pension scheme on social relationship exclusion among the rural elderly.And furthermore,it analyzes the effects of pension scheme on social relationship exclusion across different social circles.The study finds that social relationship exclusion is a widespread and serious issue among them in China.Participation in pension scheme can reduce the social relationship exclusion index of rural elderly by 0.141(equivalent to 18% of the average index value).Specifically,mechanism analysis shows that the reduction of the social relationship exclusion index can be achieved through two pathways:reducing working hours and increasing consumption expenditure.The heterogeneous analysis shows that the largest reduction in the social relationship exclusion index is observed among the low-educated and those who  don′t live with their children,who are precisely the vulnerable groups targeted by rural pension insurance policies.Further analysis indicates that participation in pension scheme has a stronger positive effect on relationships with children in the core circle and on intergenerational care in the secondary core circle.It is recommended to stabilize the coverage rate of rural-urban residents′ pension insurance,with particular attention to vulnerable groups such as low-educated and those live separately with  their children in rural areas;we should gradually raise the benefit level of the rural-urban residents’ pension in a phased manner,aligning the pension benefits of rural elderly individuals with a targeted proportion of per capita disposable income.Last but not least,establish and improve the determination and normal adjustment mechanism for basic pensions to ensure that the rural elderly continue to share in the fruits of economic and social development.

Key words：pension scheme;the rural elderly;orderly-diversity pattern;social relationship exclusion