《保险研究》20251003-《商业保险的社会治理效应：来自车险改革的证据》（郭锐欣、祝伟、陈锐钒）

［摘   要］本文以2015年开始的中国商业车险费率市场化改革作为一项准自然实验，基于2011～2019年地级市面板数据，运用广义双重差分模型，实证考察费率浮动机制对道路交通安全的影响。研究结果显示，该政策显著降低了交通死亡人数、损失金额及事故发生数量，验证了费率浮动下的经济激励促使驾驶员谨慎驾驶的假说。一系列稳健性检验有效排除了随机性干扰、混淆效应与潜在内生性问题。进一步的机制分析表明，该政策效应在经济发展水平和私人汽车保有量较低的城市更显著。本研究为理解商业保险的社会治理效应提供了新的经验证据。

［关键词］车险市场化改革；交通事故；社会治理效应

［基金项目］本文获教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(20YJA790017)资助。

［作者简介］郭锐欣，对外经济贸易大学保险学院副教授；祝伟（通讯作者），对外经济贸易大学保险学院教授；陈锐钒，首都经济贸易大学金融学院助理教授。

The Social Governance Effect of Commercial Insurance:Evidence from Auto Insurance Reform

GUO Rui-xin,ZHU Wei,CHEN Rui-fan

Abstract：This study exploits the 2015 market-oriented reform of commercial auto insurance pricing as a natural experiment to examine its impact on road traffic safety.Using the 2011-2019 panel data of prefecture-level cities and a Generalized Difference-in-Differences approach,we find that this policy significantly reduces traffic fatalities,economic losses,and incidences of accident,which proves the presumption of increased cautious driving incentivized by premium fluctuation.A series of robustness tests effectively exclude random interference,confounding effects,and potential endogeneity issues.Further mechanism analysis shows stronger effects in cities with lower economic development and private vehicle ownership.The findings provide new empirical evidences on the social governance role of commercial insurance.

Key words：auto insurance market-oriented reform;traffic accidents;social governance effect