《保险研究》20251004-《绿色保险中事故预防服务的效果研究——基于安责险的一项准自然实验》（张麒、龙舜尧、郭权、杨之曙）

［摘   要］本文以绿色保险中安责险事故预防服务政策为准自然实验，基于2015~2023年某大型都市安责险保单数据，采用多期双重差分法识别事故预防服务对投保企业生产安全事故隐患的影响。研究发现，安责险事故预防服务政策显著降低了投保企业保单的出险概率，减少了出险次数以及出险损失。机制检验发现，事故预防服务通过第三方排查机构对投保企业的事前风险识别，指导企业进行整改进而降低投保企业的生产安全事故风险；排查机构事前风险识别的能力越强，政策对于生产安全事故风险的抑制效果越明显。异质性分析表明，政策的风险抑制作用对大规模和从事高风险行业的企业效果更为突出。本文为事故预防服务有效降低企业生产安全事故风险、助力企业绿色发展提供了实证支持，对于推动绿色保险赋能绿色金融体系高质量发展具有重要的政策意义。

［关键词］绿色保险；事故预防服务；安责险；准自然实验

［基金项目］国家社会科学基金重大项目“深化金融体制改革和守住不发生系统性风险底线研究”(23ZDA039)、国家自然科学基金面上项目“我国数量型货币政策工具在银行系统中传导机制研究”(72373097)。

［作者简介］张麒，上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院副院长，金融学长聘副教授，博士生导师，入选上海市海外高层次人才引进计划(创新人才)，研究方向：金融市场、资产定价、行为金融和银行学；龙舜尧(通讯作者)，上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院金融系博士研究生；郭权，清华大学苏州环境创新研究院绿色保险研究中心副主任，研究方向：环境工程、绿色保险。

A Research on the Effect of Accident Prevention Services in Green Insurance—A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on Safety Liability Insurance

ZHANG Qi,LONG Shun-yao,GUO Quan,YANG Zhi-shu

Abstract：This paper employs the accident prevention service policy under the Green Insurance framework,specifically focusing on Safety Liability Insurance (SLI),as a quasi-natural experiment.Utilizing SLI policy data from 2015 to 2023 of a major metropolitan city and applying a Staggered Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach,we identify the impact of accident prevention services on production safety hazards in insured enterprises.The findings are as follows:(1) the SLI accident prevention service policy significantly reduces the probability of insured claims,decreases claim frequency,and mitigates claim losses;(2) mechanism analysis demonstrates that third-party inspection agencies enhance risk identification ex ante,guiding enterprises in hazard rectification,thereby reducing safety risks.The preventive effect strengthens with the pre-event risk identification capabilities of inspection institutions;(3) the heterogeneity analysis indicates more pronounced risk inhibitory effects among large-scale enterprises and those in high-risk industries.This study provides empirical evidences that accident prevention services effectively mitigate production safety hazards and facilitate green enterprise development.The findings offer significant policy implications for advancing green insurance’s role in enhancing the quality development of green financial systems.

Key words：green insurance;accident prevention services;safety liability insurance;quasi-natural experiment