《保险研究》20251005-《收益保障机制下农业利润保险的福利分析——基于中国生猪市场的数值模拟》（陈腾军、孙钰祥、粟芳）

［摘   要］本文聚焦于农业风险管理中的“收益保障机制”，探讨利润保险相比其他产品是否更有助于稳定养殖户收益。基于所构建的“收入—成本”模型，本文根据现行保险产品设计了不同保险组合，分析各种风险交互情景下的保障程度与赔偿金额，发现利润保险具有保费低、赔款低、足额保障利润的特征。然后，基于利润风险的情景分析，以生猪保险为研究对象，运用Copula模型和蒙特卡洛方法，模拟了成本、产量和价格风险相依关系下的生猪利润分布，验证了理论分析的推论。并证明在政府财政支出不变的约束下，为保障养殖户收益稳定，与成本保险、产量保险与价格保险的保险组合相比而言，采用利润保险能显著提高社会福利水平。这一结论在养殖户具有不同效用函数形式、风险偏好的情况下以及更灵活保险组合的情况下都成立。因此，应选择恰当的标的物进行试点和创新，在收益保障机制中大力发展利润保险。

［关键词］收益保障；农业保险；利润保险；社会福利；Copula模型

［基金项目］国家社会科学基金项目(23BJY019)；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(CXJJ-2024-378)。

［作者简介］陈腾军，上海财经大学金融学院博士研究生，研究方向：保险经济学；孙钰祥，上海财经大学金融学院博士研究生，研究方向：风险管理与精算定价；粟芳（通讯作者），上海财经大学金融学院教授，研究方向：保险与风险管理、非寿险精算。

Welfare Analysis of Agricultural Profit-protecting Insurance under the Revenue Guarantee Mechanism—A Numerical Simulation of the Chinese Hog Market

CHEN Teng-jun,SUN Yu-xiang,SU Fang

Abstract：This study investigates the revenue guarantee mechanism in agricultural risk management,exploring whether profit-protecting insurance is more effective for stabilizing hog farmer′s income than other products.Building on an income-cost model,insurance portfolios are designed using existing products as benchmarks,and their protection levels and indemnities are evaluated under various risk interaction scenarios.The findings indicate that profit-protecting insurance offers lower premiums,smaller indemnities,and full protection compared with substitute schemes.Using hog insurance as a case study,Copula models and Monte Carlo simulations are employed to characterize hog profit distributions under the joint dependence of cost,yield,and price risks.The simulation results validate the theoretical inferences and show that,under constant government fiscal expenditures,profit-protecting insurance significantly enhances social welfare of hog farmers in terms of income stability compared with cost,output,and price insurance.This conclusion holds across a wide range of farmers′ utility functions,risk preferences or more flexible insurance portfolios.These results highlight the importance of selecting appropriate pilot products and promoting profit-protecting insurance within the revenue guarantee mechanism.

Key words：income guarantee;agricultural insurance;profit insurance;social welfare;Copula Model