《保险研究》20250707-《数据要素发展如何重塑反洗钱风险？》（周亚虹、朱显东）

［摘   要］洗钱不仅破坏金融体系稳定，还助长犯罪、腐败和恐怖主义活动，对国家经济安全以及国际声誉造成负面影响。随着数字经济的发展，义务机构（包括金融机构和特定非金融机构）和监管机构面临的反洗钱风险发生了变化。本文在Stackelberg博弈框架下讨论数字经济发展中的重要支撑——数据要素对洗钱者、义务机构和监管机构行为的影响，并基于2013~2023年60个国家和地区的面板数据，实证检验了数据要素发展对反洗钱风险的影响。研究发现，反洗钱风险相关主体的策略选择与数据要素相对边际贡献影响有关，数据要素发展降低了反洗钱风险，且主要通过数字支付覆盖率的提升和监管机构数字化能力的提高实现。数字支付覆盖率的提升和监管数字化转型，提高了金融交易透明度，提升了监管机构的监测和分析能力，使义务机构和监管机构能够更有效地监测和追踪资金流动。异质性检验发现，与高收入国家相比，数据要素发展更显著地降低了非高收入国家的反洗钱风险。本文研究对于理解数据要素发展如何重塑反洗钱风险、加大对数据要素开发利用的投入、进一步推动监管机构数字化转型、提升反洗钱工作的有效性具有理论和政策价值。

［关键词］数据要素；反洗钱；Stackelberg博弈；双向固定效应模型

［基金项目］国家自然科学基金重点专项项目“政策试点改革中的策略性互动行为建模与仿真优化研究”（72342034）。

［作者简介］周亚虹，上海财经大学经济学院院长、数理经济学教育部重点实验室主任、常任教授；朱显东，就读于上海财经大学经济学院。

How Does Digital Elements Development Reshape Anti-Money Laundering Risk?

Zhou Ya-hong，ZHU Xian-dong

Abstract：Money laundering not only undermines the stability of the financial system，but also fuels criminal activities，corruption，and terrorism，causing severe negative impacts on a country's economic security and international reputation.With the development of the digital economy，the anti-money laundering risks faced by financial institutions and regulatory authorities have also evolved.This paper constructs a Stackelberg game model to discuss the influence of data elements—key supports for the development of the digital economy—on the behaviors of money launderers，financial institutions，and regulatory authorities.It is found that the strategic choices of stakeholders related to anti-money laundering risks are associated with the relative marginal contribution of data elements.Furthermore，based on panel data from 60 countries & regions during 2013-2023，this paper empirically examines the impact of data element development on anti-money laundering risks and its mechanisms by integrating the degree of external dependence on digital services and the Basel Anti-Money Laundering Index.The study reveals that the development of data elements can reduce anti-money laundering risks，and this effect exhibits income heterogeneity.Specifically，risk reduction is achieved through channels such as the coverage of digital payments and the digital capabilities of regulatory authorities.Further heterogeneity tests show that compared with high-income countries，non-high-income countries can more significantly reduce anti-money laundering risks by improving digital payment coverage and promoting the digital transformation of regulatory authorities.Therefore，as the largest developing country in the world，it is feasible for China to increase investment in digital technologies to curb money laundering.

Key words：data elements;anti-money laundering;Stackelberg Game;Two-Way Fixed Effects Model