《保险研究》20250701-《复杂经济金融形势下保险资产负债管理与逆周期调节研究》（阳光资产管理公司课题组）

［摘   要］当前我国面临的经济金融形势复杂严峻。外部地缘政治冲突、关税战、海外宏观政策调整，给我国带来较大的经济金融压力。内部受人口老龄化和人口负增长、资本形成增速放缓、债务等因素影响，微观经济主体困难程度加大，我国潜在经济增速中枢持续下移。在此背景下，本文考察保险资金是否发挥了逆周期调节作用。研究发现，在金融上行周期，保险机构易快速扩张，以至积累过多风险；而在金融下行周期，保险机构的资产优化配置难以抵消负债端给付压力的相对快速增加；在资产收益率极低时，保险公司在资产端的配置优化行为将失效。因此，采取针对性的逆周期金融监管极其必要。进一步的，本文从国家、行业层面提出建议。国家层面，建议加大对经济的财政支持和拉长政府债务久期；打破刚性兑付，降低金融机构负债成本；实施预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调整机制。行业层面，建议发展保障型产品降低利差依赖；加大浮动收益型产品比重；强化资产负债联动，助力负债端转型；增加固收类资产投资的多样性，加强另类投资，扩大资产配置领域，强化久期匹配；战术上增强投资收益，信用下沉获得风险补偿。多措并举，推动保险资金发挥长期投资优势，更好发挥保险业的经济减震器和社会稳定器功能。

［关键词］复杂经济金融形势；保险资产负债管理；金融监管；逆周期调节

［基金项目］本文为中国保险学会2024年度研究课题“复杂经济金融形势下保险资产负债管理与逆周期调节研究”（ISCKT2024-N-1-09）的研究成果。

［作者简介］课题组负责人：邱晓华，博士，现任阳光保险集团首席经济学家、阳光资产管理公司首席战略官，澳门城市大学教授；课题组成员：李衡，博士，阳光资产管理公司宏观研究部副总经理（主持工作）；徐灼，博士，阳光资产管理公司宏观研究部高级研究员；陈柯，博士，阳光资产管理公司宏观研究部研究员；张艳杰，硕士，阳光资产管理公司宏观研究部研究员；付万丛，博士，阳光资产管理公司宏观研究部研究员；李珂，硕士，阳光资产管理公司宏观研究部研究员。

A Research on Insurance Asset-Liability Management and Countercyclical Adjustment under Complex Economic and Financial Situations

The Research Team of Sunshine Asset Management Co.，Ltd.

Abstract：The grave and complex economic and financial situations in China，external geopolitical conflicts，the tariff war，and overseas adjustment of macro policies are posing significant pressures on the economy and financial system.Internally，due to the population aging and negative population growth，slowing down of asset formation，and high debts，etc.，the pivot of China’s potential economic growth is edging downwards.This paper explores whether the insurance institutions play the countercyclical adjustment role under this background.The research finds that during the upward phase of the financial cycle，insurance institutions tend to expand rapidly，thus accumulating high risks;  while during the downward phase of the financial cycle，the asset optimization allocation of insurance institutions is difficult to fully offset the relatively rapid increase in the payment pressure on the liability side;and when asset returns are extremely low，the asset allocation optimization behavior of insurance companies will completely fail.Therefore，it is extremely necessary to implement targeted countercyclical financial supervision.Furthermore，suggestions are put forward from the  national level and the insurance institutions’ perspective.From the national level，the Paper suggests to strengthen fiscal supports to the economy and lengthen the duration of treasury bonds;eliminate the explicit guarantee of payment and lower the liability cost of financial institutions;link the insurance products’ assumed interest rate with the market interest rate and make dynamic adjustment of the former.From the insurance industry’s perspective，the Paper suggests to develop protection type insurance products to reduce the dependence on the interest spread;raise the proportion of semi-priced products;enhance asset liability interaction to facilitate the transformation of the liability side;further diversify the fixed return type of investments，step up on alternative investments and strengthen duration match;enhance investment income tactically and obtain risk compensation through risk sinking.To sum up，the insurance industry should employ all possible means to capitalize on the long-term advantage of its investment funds，so as to better play its role  as an economic shock absorber and social stabilizer.

Key words：complex economic and financial situation;insurance asset-liability management;financial regulation;countercyclical adjustment