《保险研究》20250705-《城镇职工基本养老金体系的自动调整机制研究》（郝君富、吴小丽）

［摘   要］随着人口老龄化形势加剧，我国城镇职工基本养老金支出压力不断增大。为保持基金的财务可持续性，养老金的发放水平应与当前经济及人口发展形势相适应。本文综合考虑经济和人口结构变化，建立城镇职工基本养老金体系的自动调整机制，并测算其对基金收支的影响。研究发现，本文的指数化调整方案能使基金首次出现当期赤字的时间最多推迟18~20年，累计赤字推迟15~20年，显著增强基金的财务可持续性。若同时兼顾待遇充足性，可在替代率下降不超过5%的情形下，将首次当期赤字和累计赤字年份分别推迟15年和10年，至2062年基金累计缺口可减少18%~30%。在此基础上，为实现法定退休年龄的自动化调整引入比例延迟退休法，并与2025年1月1日起开始施行的渐进式延迟法定退休年龄政策展开对比分析。测算结果表明，预测期内现行制度对基金财务可持续性的改善效果更为显著，但由于比例延迟退休法可持续根据余寿变化调整法定退休年龄，预测后期基金累计赤字的增速要慢于现行退休制度情形，对基金财务状况的改善效果更为持久。因此，建议建立常态化的自动调整机制，动态调整养老金待遇和法定退休年龄，在保障待遇充足性的同时，逐步改善基金收支状况。同时积极推进鼓励生育政策，改善人口结构，促进养老金制度的长期可持续发展。

［关键词］城镇职工基本养老金；基金收支；自动调整机制；延迟退休

［基金项目］本研究得到教育部哲学社会科学研究项目（22JHQ070）的资助。

［作者简介］郝君富，对外经济贸易大学保险学院副教授；吴小丽，对外经济贸易大学保险学院硕士研究生。

A Study on the Automatic Adjustment Mechanism of Basic Pension System for Urban Employees

HAO Jun-fu，WU Xiao-li

Abstract：With the intensification of population aging，the pressure on the expenditure of the basic pension for urban employees is growing.To maintain the financial sustainability of the pension fund，the level of pension payment should align with economic and demographic conditions.This paper comprehensively considers changes in both of these two factors to establish an automatic pension adjustment mechanism and projects its impacts on the revenue and expenditure of the pension fund.The study finds that this mechanism can delay the first occurrence of current fund deficit by up to 18-20 years and the cumulative deficit by 15-20 years，significantly enhancing the financial sustainability.If benefit adequacy is also taken into account，the first occurrence of current and cumulative deficits can be postponed by 15 years and 10 years respectively，with the replacement rate decreasing by no more than 5%.By 2062，the cumulative fund gap will be reduced by 18%-30%.On this basis，the proportional delayed retirement method is introduced to achieve the automatic adjustment of the statutory retirement age，and a comparative analysis is conducted with the gradual delayed statutory retirement age policy implemented starting from January 1，2025.The results show that the current system has a more significant improvement effect on the financial sustainability of the fund during the forecast period.However，since the proportional delayed retirement method can continuously adjust the retirement age according to changes in life expectancy，it is predicted that the growth rate of the cumulative deficit of the fund in later period will be slower than that of the current retirement system，indicating that the improvement effect on the financial situation of the fund will be more lasting.Therefore，this paper recommends establishing a regular automatic adjustment mechanism to dynamically modify pension benefits and statutory retirement age so that the balance status of the pension fund will be steadily improved while the benefit adequacy is safeguarded.Additionally，we suggest promoting policies to encourage childbirth for better demographic structure，thereby fostering the sustainable development of the pension system.

Key words：basic pension for urban employees;fund revenue and expenditure;automatic adjustment mechanism;delayed retirement