《保险研究》20260204-《我国带病体长期护理保险定价研究》（夏贺彦、王晓军）

［摘   要］商业长期护理保险的发展亟需精细的风险评估与定价支持。本研究基于中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查（CLHLS）数据，构建失能与死亡的联合风险模型，研究健康体和带病体的长期护理保险定价问题，测算相对于混合人群的费率乘数。结果表明，不同人群在失能和死亡责任下的净保费水平存在明显的分层特征，带病体的失能责任净保费显著高于健康体，且其费率乘数在年龄较轻人群中表现出更强的风险放大效应，建议对两类人群实施分类定价策略。本研究拓展了基于生存模型的长期护理保险精算定价方法，为长期护理保险的分层定价提供了实证依据。

［关键词］长期护理保险；带病体保险；失能联合风险；精算定价

［作者简介］夏贺彦，中国人民大学统计学院博士研究生，研究方向：老年失能风险管理；王晓军（通讯作者），中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心研究员、教授、博士生导师，研究方向：风险管理与保险精算。

Pricing Long-Term Care Insurance for Substandard Lives in China

XIA He-yan，WANG Xiao-jun

Abstract：The development of commercial LTCI urgently requires refined risk assessment and pricing methodologies.This study develops a joint disability–mortality risk model based on data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey （CLHLS） to study the LTCI pricing of healthy and substandard individuals，and estimate their premium multipliers relative to the mixed population.The results reveal clear risk stratification in net premiums under both disability and mortality coverages.In particular，net premiums for disability coverage are significantly higher for substandard lives than for healthy individuals，and the associated premium multipliers exhibit stronger risk amplification among younger elderly groups.These findings support the implementation of classification-based pricing strategies in commercial practice.This study extends survival model-based actuarial pricing methods for LTCI，and provides empirical evidence to support pricing stratification in the LTCI market.

Key words：long-term care insurance；insurance for substandard lives；joint risk of disability and death；insurance actuarial pricing