《保险研究》20260201-《遍历性视角下的保险》（陈秉正、周伏平）

［摘   要］近年来遍历性经济学（Ergodicity Economics）的兴起，为解释经济活动中的风险承担、财富积累与决策行为提供了一个新视角。本文首先介绍了遍历性的概念和核心要义，以及基于遍历性视角对保险合约存在性的新解释，回答了长期困扰经济学家的 “保险谜题”。其次，从修复非遍历性的视角分析了保险的价值——通过风险汇聚实现了将个体财富过程的非遍历性转化为群体损失过程的遍历性；通过保险资金池对个体资金的缓冲与时间平滑作用，实现了跨期资源配置；通过稳定个体心理预期，使个体决策时能作出更接近基于群体统计规律的理性选择，而非受制于个体可能遭遇的极端路径。最后，阐述了遍历性概念及相关分析方法的引入可能给保险研究带来的影响，并列举了一些重要研究话题。

［关键词］遍历性；保险谜题；效用范式；时间范式

［作者简介］陈秉正，清华大学经济管理学院金融系教授，博士生导师；周伏平，中国保险保障基金有限责任公司副总经理。

Insurance from an Ergodic Perspective

CHEN Bing-zheng，ZHOU Fu-ping

Abstract：The recent emergence of “ergodicity economics” has provided a novel perspective for explaining risk-taking，wealth accumulation，and decision-making behaviors in economic activities.This paper first introduces the concept of ergodicity and its core principles，presenting a fresh interpretation of insurance contract existence from an ergodic perspective that resolves the long-standing “insurance puzzle” perplexing economists.Secondly，it analyzes insurance value—— through the lens of rectifying non-ergodicity：transforming individual-level non-ergodic risks into collective ergodic risks via risk aggregation；achieving intertemporal resource allocation through insurance capital pools that provide financial cushioning and temporal smoothing for individuals；and fostering “behavioral ergodicity” by stabilizing psychological expectations，enabling rational decisions based on group statistical patterns rather than being constrained by extreme individual scenarios.The author then systematically discusses how the introduction of ergodicity concepts and related analytical methods may influence insurance theory research and operational practices，highlighting several significant and intriguing research topics.

Key words：ergodicity；insurance puzzle；utility paradigm；time paradigm